Montgomery, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

934
FXUS64 KHUN 231047
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
547 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Another seasonably cool day is in store across the Tennessee
Valley. Weak northwesterly flow will help advect in a cooler
airmass keeping afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. A
few members of the evening HREF run show some light showers
popping up this afternoon. Heading into the afternoon hours we
will have to look out for some convergence boundary that could
initiate a few showers. However, given low confidence in
occurrence and if they do occur the coverage would be very low
have opted to keep the dry forecast with a very low chance PoP
(10%).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The pattern then becomes more favorable for multiple periods of
showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday night into Saturday.
Then again on Sunday into early Monday. The surface boundary will
attempt to lift northward, but will struggle with outflow/cold
pools keeping this from occurring with much confidence. Thus, the
surface warm sector may remain mainly just to our south through
early Sunday. It`s still unclear if the warm sector will surge
north on Sunday afternoon which could increase the risk of
stronger storms due to greater surface based instability. Deep
layer wind fields will tend to decrease overall by Sunday, which
may lower the risk of severe weather. But this may also slow storm
motions and increase risk of excessive rainfall with time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Sunday night an upper level ridge will continue to translate east
across the Gulf coast. Along the northern edge of this, additional
shortwaves look to ripple through the TN Vally on Monday. This
unfortunately will make for a rather wet holiday with consistent rain
and thunder chances throughout the day. These rain and thunder
chances will be further supported by an approaching cold front
nearing the area Monday evening. While the passage of the front does
look to maintain rain chances through the evening, long range models
are rather pessimistic regarding an environment supportive of severe
weather. Rather, model guidance suggests we will have limited
instability due to the ongoing rain throughout the day.

While the front looks to pass on Tuesday morning, it looks to weaken
as it progresses SE. Thus, low rain and storms chances will be
maintained through the long term forecast as the front decays to our
SE. Aside from the likely overcast conditions through mid week, the
additional byproduct will be mild temperatures across the area for
mid May. Temperatures look to remain near or below 80 each day
making for slightly cooler than seasonable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions with light and variable winds are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...GH